譯/李京倫 核稿/樂慧生
歐洲民粹運動 與川普劃清界線
For Europe's populists, the electoral defeat of President Donald Trump, who has been a symbol of success and a strong supporter, was bad enough. But his refusal to accept defeat and the violence that followed appears to have damaged the prospects of similarly minded leaders across the continent.
對歐洲民粹主義者而言，一向被他們視為成功的象徵與強力支持者的美國（前）總統川普連任失利已經夠糟了，而他拒絕認輸和繼之而起的暴亂，似乎已讓歐陸各地與他志同道合的領導人物前途蒙上陰影。
"What happened in the Capitol following the defeat of Donald Trump is a bad omen for the populists," said Dominique Moïsi, a senior analyst at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne. "It says two things: If you elect them, they don't leave power easily, and if you elect them, look at what they can do in calling for popular anger."
巴黎智庫蒙田研究所資深分析師莫伊西說：「川普敗選後發生在國會大廈的事，對民粹主義者是壞兆頭，顯示出兩件事：一旦選了他們，他們不會輕易交出權力，還有如果把票投給他們，瞧瞧他們煽動民眾怒火的能耐。」
The long day of rioting, violence and death as Trump's supporters stormed the Capitol has presented a clear warning to countries such as France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland about underestimating the force of populist anger and the prevalence of conspiracy theories aimed at democratic governments.
川粉攻占國會這一整天出現的騷亂、暴力和死亡，明確警告法國、德國、義大利、荷蘭與波蘭等國家，切莫低估民粹主義怒火的力量，針對民主政府的陰謀論又有多麼盛行。
Heather Grabbe, director of the Open Society European Policy Institute in Brussels, said the unrest showed how the populist playbook was founded on "us versus them and leads to violence."
比利時布魯塞爾「歐洲開放社會政策研究所」所長希瑟．葛雷布指出，這一起暴亂顯示，民粹主義者的攻略，是奠基在「我們與他們對立的觀念上，而且會引發暴力」。
"It's very important to show where populism leads and how it plays with fire," she added. "When you've aroused your supporters with political arguments about us versus them, they are not opponents but enemies who must be fought with all means, and it both leads to violence and makes conceding power impossible."
她說：「我們必須指明民粹主義會引向什麼後果和民粹主義如何玩火，這非常重要。當你用我們與他們誓不兩立的政治論述激起支持者的情緒，『他們』就不只是反對者，而是必須用盡一切手段去打敗的敵人，這會導致暴力，並使交出權力變得全無可能。」
Just how threatening Europe's populists found the events in the United States could be seen in their reaction: One by one, they distanced themselves from the rioting or fell silent.
歐洲民粹主義者已察覺美國的暴亂事件對他們極具威脅性，這可從他們的反應看出，他們一個接一個不是與暴亂劃清界線，就是默不作聲。
There remains considerable anxiety among mainstream politicians about anti-elitist, anti-government political movements in Europe, especially amid the confusion and anxiety produced by the coronavirus pandemic.
歐洲主流政治人物對於反菁英和反政府政治運動仍深感焦慮，在新冠疫情造成困惑不安的此際更是如此。
Janis A. Emmanouilidis, director of studies at the European Policy Center in Brussels, said that there was no uniform European populism. The various movements have different characteristics in different countries, and outside events are only one factor in their varying popularity, he noted.
布魯塞爾智庫歐洲政策中心研究總監伊曼歐伊里迪斯說，歐洲並沒有全體一致的民粹主義，不同國家的民粹運動各有特色，而外部事件只是影響民粹盛行程度的因素之一。
The "amazing polarization of society" and the violence in Washington "creates a lot of deterrence in other societies," Emmanouilidis said. "We see where it leads, we want to avoid it, but we are aware that we too could get to that point, that things could escalate."
他說，「美國社會對立嚴重」和華府國會暴亂「使其他社會格外警惕，我們看到民粹的後果，想避免步上後塵，但也知道我們自己可能走到那個地步，事態可能惡化。」
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